Candidates 2026 Preview
The favorites, the veterans, and my surprise Dark Horse.
We are all excited about the upcoming 2026 FIDE Candidates.
Will it be one of the American veterans, Hikaru or Fabi? Will Pragg use his 2024 Candidates experience to win it all and challenge his childhood friend in a historic all-Indian World Championship match?
Or will one of the dark horses steal the show?
In this post, I’ll break down the strengths, weaknesses, and X-factors of each Candidate, and reveal my personal pick to win it all. Let’s dive in.
Hikaru Nakamura
Strengths: Experience. Hikaru has competed in the last two Candidates in a row, narrowly missing the win each time. In Madrid 2022, he easily equalized against Ding Liren in the final round but ended up losing; a draw would have made him Nepo’s opponent for the World Championship. In 2024, a win against Gukesh in the final round would have secured him a match vs. Ding. If this tournament comes down to a rapid/blitz tiebreak, I would put my money on Hikaru against anyone.
Weaknesses: He hardly played classical chess last year — unless you count the “Mickey Mouse” tournaments he played strictly to secure his qualification spot. His opening prep wasn’t particularly impressive in the last Candidates either, notoriously losing to Vidit with White in under 30 moves.
The X-Factor: Hikaru, just like Magnus, is a newly-minted dad. How will this affect him? We all know what it’s like to try and calculate deep variations when you’re grumpy after a poor night’s sleep and changing diapers!
With all due respect to his incredible streaming second act, I consider Hikaru less of a favorite than my top 3.
Fabiano Caruana
Strengths: Caruana has established himself as the greatest player in the world after Magnus. If you can believe it, 2026 marks his 6th Candidates appearance. He gave Magnus a run for his money in their 2018 World Championship match, and last time out in Toronto, he was crushing Nepo in a dramatic showdown that would have tied him with Gukesh for first (though Nepo defended tenaciously to stop the American). In a grueling event like this, I choose experience over youth.
Weaknesses: Fabi plays non-stop. While it yields great results — like winning the Grand Chess Tour last year — the massive drawback is fatigue. He may simply be too tired for a grueling 14-game marathon.
The X-Factor: The mental block. Hikaru seems to have Fabi’s number, having beaten him in their mini-match during the last Candidates. Hikaru’s recent head-to-head record against Caruana is so lopsided that this psychological hurdle is probably Fabi’s biggest obstacle. At the same time, Fabi knows he’s the best player in the field when he’s on form. If he is sharp, he has to be the favorite.
Anish Giri
Anish definitely surprised me when he made a comeback to the Top 10 after briefly dropping out last year. After all, being a dad of three and an “aging” player at 31 makes it incredibly hard to compete against a young generation that studies chess 24/7. Yet, Giri is probably the best theoretician in the world, and this is precisely the type of event where he can spring his deep opening surprises.
The X-Factor: Anish recently launched a new product, chessmonitor.com. Will his business and social media empire distract him from the main goal of winning the Candidates?
Praggnanandhaa
Pragg qualified by scoring the most FIDE Circuit points from his numerous tournament wins last year. This proves he is incredibly consistent, which is a massive bonus in a round-robin. Lately, however, he hasn’t shown anything spectacular, mostly finishing just outside the top 3 in elite events.
The X-Factor: Pragg is from the golden age of Indian youngsters, growing up and competing directly with Gukesh. The experience of playing the 2024 Candidates and learning from his mistakes is his biggest trump card. I’m sure he would love nothing more than to win it all and meet his childhood friend on the biggest stage in chess. After Caruana, he’s my #2 favorite.
Matthias Bluebaum
Bluebaum came out of nowhere, qualifying by placing second at the FIDE Grand Swiss. Yet, he proved himself as a very strong contender at the recent Tata Steel, taking down Keymer, Giri, and Gukesh!
Despite the great form, I don’t believe he has high chances to win the Candidates simply due to a lack of experience in these ultra-elite pressure cookers.
Wei Yi
Wei Yi qualified for the Candidates via the FIDE World Cup. He was always an incredible talent, but for a long time, he was overshadowed by his countryman Ding Liren. Interestingly, even Ding considered Wei Yi to be the more talented player, once famously predicting: “I am just a rock in the stream. The water will eventually flow past me.” Let’s see if the water finally breaks through.
Andrey Esipenko
The young Russian reminds me of Anatoly Karpov, but with a much more aggressive opening repertoire. He first made global headlines years ago at Tata Steel by taking down Magnus Carlsen in style.
He is incredibly dangerous, but I feel like Esipenko still needs one more cycle of experience before he is ready to win it all.
Javokhir Sindarov (The Dark Horse)
Sindarov is one of the youngest players in the field at only 20 years old (the same age as Pragg). Yet, his trajectory to the top reminds me of Mikhail Tal. He is playing non-stop, and he is improving non-stop!
I actually think he has more chances to win this event than Hikaru does. Because of his fearless, dynamic style and his rapid ascent, I am officially choosing Sindarov as my Dark Horse to win the 2026 Candidates. After all, winning the FIDE World Cup speaks for itself.
Who is your favorite to win?
Let me know your predictions in the comments below!
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